If you look at the human empowerment model, it will all depend on whether the technological conditions, the educational resources, and the connective resources have gotten worse or not. If not, then people will mobilize and the massive protests will demand change, regardless of the government’s forceful opposition.
The critical question is whether the institutions of a nation are more or less democratic than its people. The World Value Survey clearly shows that some people like hierarchy, strict gender roles that confine people into little boxes, and clearly-defined “me-versus-them” boundaries. Those people will not protest against dictatorships. The rest will.
If you want more information on this, check out Freedom Rising by Christian Welzel.
What’s an auto-coup?
I assume a coup by the reigning government.
That’s not a coup, by definition.
It’s still bad, but coup isn’t the right term
Historically? Never, the ones that appear to survive are stripped and repurposed for something nefarious.