Late to the party, but here’s mine.
Three games in and my poll is starting to make a little sense. It’s based on a new computer poll I made up. If you beat a team, you “earn” their wins. Lose and you get their losses. Sprinkle on some math and repeat until it stabilizes. Here’s my ballot.
Here’s the top 25:
I’m having trouble posting my results, but that’s probably for the better. My poll needs a few more weeks of data to spit out something coherent.
Like make a model while drunk, or one that acts drunk?? 😂
No votes or picks from me this week, since I let my poll make all the decisions.
Speaking of which, I made a new model! I wanted to see if I could make a halfway decent model using only wins and losses. No points, no stats, no historical data. Just which teams did you play, what is their record, and did you win?
Introducing the Cross-network Recursive Earned-record Equity Propagation Ratings or CREEPR for short. Basically, a team “earns” the win or loss side of each opponent’s record depending on the result of that game. The total “earned record” becomes the team’s new record and the process repeats a bunch of times until the results converge. If there’s interest, I can explain the method in more detail in another thread/post.
I was thinking about doing that for my algorithm. But at the same time, if you get absolutely embarrassed in your CCG (cough Bama & BYU cough), maybe your rating should drop at least a bit…
And here’s the poll after championship weekend. It’s pretty harsh on the losers, even Ohio State, who only lost by 3 to an equal opponent… And Notre Dame sits there at #4.
Fun fact: If you run my algo in reverse chronological order, ND ends up at #15. It was kind of by design for more recent games to matter more, but I didn’t expect THAT much difference. I might play with ways to reduce that effect in the future.
| Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | (13-0) | 1533 | 1025 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | (12-1) | 1516 | 979 |
| 3 | Georgia | (12-1) | 1488 | 1019 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | (10-2) | 1444 | 1044 |
| 5 | Oregon | (11-1) | 1440 | 1004 |
| 6 | Ohio State | (12-1) | 1422 | 1038 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | (10-2) | 1387 | 1065 |
| 8 | Utah | (10-2) | 1378 | 979 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | (11-1) | 1372 | 1004 |
| 10 | Vanderbilt | (10-2) | 1364 | 983 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | (11-1) | 1356 | 1014 |
| 12 | Tulane | (11-2) | 1323 | 1014 |
| 13 | James Madison | (12-1) | 1319 | 877 |
| 14 | Arizona | (9-3) | 1318 | 974 |
| 15 | Texas | (9-3) | 1308 | 1058 |
| 16 | BYU | (11-2) | 1305 | 1096 |
| 17 | Miami | (10-2) | 1300 | 988 |
| 18 | Alabama | (10-3) | 1291 | 1079 |
| 19 | USC | (9-3) | 1267 | 1074 |
| 20 | North Texas | (11-2) | 1243 | 958 |
| 21 | Navy | (9-2) | 1232 | 963 |
| 22 | Michigan | (9-3) | 1225 | 1067 |
| 23 | South Florida | (9-3) | 1225 | 969 |
| 24 | Iowa | (8-4) | 1223 | 1016 |
| 25 | Duke | (8-5) | 1218 | 1034 |
| 26 | New Mexico | (9-3) | 1184 | 884 |
| 27 | Missouri | (8-4) | 1176 | 988 |
| 28 | Washington | (8-4) | 1172 | 964 |
| 29 | Clemson | (7-5) | 1170 | 941 |
| 30 | Virginia | (10-3) | 1168 | 963 |
| 31 | Boise State | (9-4) | 1167 | 978 |
| 32 | Kennesaw State | (10-3) | 1166 | 918 |
| 33 | UConn | (9-3) | 1166 | 833 |
| 34 | East Carolina | (8-4) | 1165 | 945 |
| 35 | TCU | (8-4) | 1163 | 997 |
| 36 | Old Dominion | (9-3) | 1162 | 878 |
| 37 | SMU | (8-4) | 1159 | 963 |
| 38 | Pittsburgh | (8-4) | 1156 | 964 |
| 39 | Arizona State | (8-4) | 1154 | 1056 |
| 40 | Tennessee | (8-4) | 1154 | 993 |
| 41 | Western Michigan | (9-4) | 1150 | 872 |
| 42 | Iowa State | (8-4) | 1149 | 1006 |
| 43 | LSU | (7-5) | 1138 | 1093 |
| 44 | Houston | (9-3) | 1137 | 950 |
| 45 | Illinois | (8-4) | 1132 | 1051 |
| 46 | Toledo | (8-4) | 1131 | 846 |
| 47 | Wake Forest | (8-4) | 1125 | 950 |
| 48 | Penn State | (6-6) | 1120 | 1050 |
| 49 | Georgia Tech | (9-3) | 1114 | 975 |
| 50 | San Diego State | (9-3) | 1106 | 875 |
| 51 | UNLV | (10-3) | 1101 | 885 |
| 52 | NC State | (7-5) | 1083 | 1054 |
| 53 | Kansas State | (6-6) | 1072 | 1023 |
| 54 | Louisville | (8-4) | 1071 | 999 |
| 55 | Minnesota | (7-5) | 1067 | 987 |
| 56 | Florida International | (7-5) | 1062 | 894 |
| 57 | Memphis | (8-4) | 1056 | 933 |
| 58 | California | (7-5) | 1051 | 938 |
| 59 | Hawai’i | (8-4) | 1050 | 875 |
| 60 | Fresno State | (8-4) | 1048 | 845 |
| 61 | Army | (6-5) | 1045 | 938 |
| 62 | Cincinnati | (7-5) | 1043 | 992 |
| 63 | Nebraska | (7-5) | 1026 | 977 |
| 64 | Ohio | (8-4) | 1018 | 823 |
| 65 | Northwestern | (6-6) | 1015 | 1020 |
| 66 | Jacksonville State | (8-5) | 1011 | 867 |
| 67 | Washington State | (6-6) | 1005 | 989 |
| 68 | Troy | (8-5) | 1005 | 900 |
| 69 | Florida | (4-8) | 1002 | 1125 |
| 70 | UTSA | (6-6) | 997 | 980 |
| 71 | South Carolina | (4-8) | 986 | 1110 |
| 72 | Louisiana | (6-6) | 986 | 889 |
| 73 | Auburn | (5-7) | 985 | 1059 |
| 74 | Louisiana Tech | (7-5) | 985 | 846 |
| 75 | Western Kentucky | (8-4) | 982 | 873 |
| 76 | Wisconsin | (4-8) | 972 | 1170 |
| 77 | Utah State | (6-6) | 967 | 975 |
| 78 | Miami (OH) | (7-6) | 963 | 897 |
| 79 | Arkansas State | (6-6) | 960 | 882 |
| 80 | Texas State | (6-6) | 959 | 900 |
| 81 | Georgia Southern | (6-6) | 958 | 928 |
| 82 | Kentucky | (5-7) | 948 | 1092 |
| 83 | Mississippi State | (5-7) | 948 | 1068 |
| 84 | Central Michigan | (7-5) | 948 | 842 |
| 85 | Baylor | (5-7) | 944 | 1036 |
| 86 | UCF | (5-7) | 935 | 984 |
| 87 | West Virginia | (4-8) | 930 | 1076 |
| 88 | Missouri State | (7-5) | 928 | 894 |
| 89 | Rutgers | (5-7) | 927 | 1041 |
| 90 | Kansas | (5-7) | 922 | 1054 |
| 91 | Stanford | (4-8) | 916 | 1070 |
| 92 | Temple | (5-7) | 902 | 982 |
| 93 | Air Force | (4-8) | 899 | 951 |
| 94 | Southern Miss | (7-5) | 896 | 872 |
| 95 | Michigan State | (4-8) | 881 | 1039 |
| 96 | Florida Atlantic | (4-8) | 878 | 997 |
| 97 | UCLA | (3-9) | 877 | 1157 |
| 98 | Coastal Carolina | (6-6) | 874 | 900 |
| 99 | Delaware | (6-6) | 872 | 865 |
| 100 | Rice | (5-7) | 870 | 983 |
| 101 | Florida State | (5-7) | 868 | 1025 |
| 102 | Kent State | (5-7) | 844 | 860 |
| 103 | UAB | (4-8) | 843 | 994 |
| 104 | Virginia Tech | (3-9) | 842 | 1058 |
| 105 | North Carolina | (4-8) | 842 | 963 |
| 106 | Eastern Michigan | (4-8) | 837 | 851 |
| 107 | Tulsa | (4-8) | 836 | 910 |
| 108 | Colorado | (3-9) | 824 | 1112 |
| 109 | Arkansas | (2-10) | 820 | 1108 |
| 110 | South Alabama | (4-8) | 820 | 905 |
| 111 | Akron | (5-7) | 817 | 789 |
| 112 | Nevada | (3-9) | 800 | 944 |
| 113 | App State | (5-7) | 799 | 870 |
| 114 | Boston College | (2-10) | 795 | 1019 |
| 115 | Marshall | (5-7) | 795 | 938 |
| 116 | Maryland | (4-8) | 790 | 976 |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee | (3-9) | 784 | 862 |
| 118 | Liberty | (4-8) | 783 | 911 |
| 119 | Wyoming | (4-8) | 758 | 897 |
| 120 | Buffalo | (5-7) | 745 | 846 |
| 121 | Purdue | (2-10) | 741 | 1110 |
| 122 | New Mexico State | (4-8) | 725 | 872 |
| 123 | Ball State | (4-8) | 718 | 895 |
| 124 | San José State | (3-9) | 705 | 949 |
| 125 | Syracuse | (3-9) | 695 | 1076 |
| 126 | Northern Illinois | (3-9) | 692 | 860 |
| 127 | Oklahoma State | (1-11) | 682 | 1059 |
| 128 | Bowling Green | (4-8) | 682 | 837 |
| 129 | Oregon State | (2-10) | 668 | 1000 |
| 130 | Colorado State | (2-10) | 641 | 991 |
| 131 | Charlotte | (1-11) | 636 | 1025 |
| 132 | Sam Houston | (2-10) | 636 | 931 |
| 133 | UL Monroe | (3-9) | 627 | 916 |
| 134 | UTEP | (2-10) | 625 | 867 |
| 135 | Georgia State | (1-11) | 604 | 994 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | (0-12) | 410 | 883 |
Here are my rankings for this week. I will hold off submitting a poll until the Championship games have been played.
No real surprises here. OSU retakes the top spot, Texas A&M drops, putting them on the bubble. Pitt, SMU, and ASU drop out of the Top 25, being replaced by Navy, USF, and Iowa. ND persists at #4.
If you used this to CFP seeding, the Top 10 all make it in, with North Texas and JMU over any ACC team.
| Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | (12-0) | 1482 | 997 |
| 2 | Indiana | (12-0) | 1473 | 988 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | (11-1) | 1459 | 957 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | (10-2) | 1444 | 1038 |
| 5 | Oregon | (11-1) | 1440 | 999 |
| 6 | Georgia | (11-1) | 1426 | 1001 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | (10-2) | 1387 | 1070 |
| 8 | Utah | (10-2) | 1378 | 979 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | (11-1) | 1372 | 993 |
| 10 | Vanderbilt | (10-2) | 1364 | 988 |
| 11 | BYU | (11-1) | 1362 | 1057 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | (11-1) | 1356 | 1014 |
| 13 | Alabama | (10-2) | 1353 | 1040 |
| 14 | Arizona | (9-3) | 1318 | 978 |
| 15 | North Texas | (11-1) | 1313 | 924 |
| 16 | Texas | (9-3) | 1308 | 1058 |
| 17 | James Madison | (11-1) | 1301 | 866 |
| 18 | Miami | (10-2) | 1300 | 988 |
| 19 | USC | (9-3) | 1268 | 1075 |
| 20 | Tulane | (10-2) | 1254 | 989 |
| 21 | Virginia | (10-2) | 1244 | 935 |
| 22 | Navy | (9-2) | 1232 | 970 |
| 23 | Michigan | (9-3) | 1226 | 1073 |
| 24 | South Florida | (9-3) | 1225 | 968 |
| 25 | Iowa | (8-4) | 1224 | 1012 |
| 26 | New Mexico | (9-3) | 1184 | 885 |
| 27 | Missouri | (8-4) | 1176 | 993 |
| 28 | Washington | (8-4) | 1173 | 970 |
| 29 | UNLV | (10-2) | 1173 | 860 |
| 30 | Clemson | (7-5) | 1170 | 936 |
| 31 | UConn | (9-3) | 1166 | 827 |
| 32 | East Carolina | (8-4) | 1165 | 944 |
| 33 | TCU | (8-4) | 1163 | 1001 |
| 34 | Old Dominion | (9-3) | 1163 | 873 |
| 35 | SMU | (8-4) | 1159 | 963 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | (8-4) | 1156 | 964 |
| 37 | Arizona State | (8-4) | 1154 | 1051 |
| 38 | Tennessee | (8-4) | 1154 | 993 |
| 39 | Iowa State | (8-4) | 1149 | 1010 |
| 40 | Duke | (7-5) | 1142 | 1023 |
| 41 | LSU | (7-5) | 1138 | 1098 |
| 42 | Houston | (9-3) | 1137 | 946 |
| 43 | Illinois | (8-4) | 1132 | 1041 |
| 44 | Toledo | (8-4) | 1132 | 846 |
| 45 | Wake Forest | (8-4) | 1125 | 946 |
| 46 | Penn State | (6-6) | 1120 | 1051 |
| 47 | Kennesaw State | (9-3) | 1118 | 909 |
| 48 | Georgia Tech | (9-3) | 1114 | 963 |
| 49 | Western Michigan | (8-4) | 1109 | 874 |
| 50 | San Diego State | (9-3) | 1106 | 869 |
| 51 | Boise State | (8-4) | 1095 | 974 |
| 52 | NC State | (7-5) | 1083 | 1054 |
| 53 | Kansas State | (6-6) | 1072 | 1018 |
| 54 | Louisville | (8-4) | 1071 | 1004 |
| 55 | Minnesota | (7-5) | 1068 | 992 |
| 56 | Florida International | (7-5) | 1062 | 894 |
| 57 | Jacksonville State | (8-4) | 1059 | 838 |
| 58 | Memphis | (8-4) | 1056 | 929 |
| 59 | California | (7-5) | 1051 | 938 |
| 60 | Hawai’i | (8-4) | 1050 | 881 |
| 61 | Fresno State | (8-4) | 1048 | 839 |
| 62 | Army | (6-5) | 1045 | 938 |
| 63 | Cincinnati | (7-5) | 1043 | 997 |
| 64 | Nebraska | (7-5) | 1027 | 978 |
| 65 | Troy | (8-4) | 1023 | 866 |
| 66 | Ohio | (8-4) | 1019 | 829 |
| 67 | Northwestern | (6-6) | 1016 | 1015 |
| 68 | Miami (OH) | (7-5) | 1006 | 879 |
| 69 | Washington State | (6-6) | 1005 | 1000 |
| 70 | Florida | (4-8) | 1002 | 1120 |
| 71 | UTSA | (6-6) | 997 | 980 |
| 72 | Louisiana | (6-6) | 987 | 889 |
| 73 | South Carolina | (4-8) | 986 | 1115 |
| 74 | Louisiana Tech | (7-5) | 986 | 842 |
| 75 | Auburn | (5-7) | 985 | 1059 |
| 76 | Western Kentucky | (8-4) | 982 | 877 |
| 77 | Wisconsin | (4-8) | 972 | 1179 |
| 78 | Utah State | (6-6) | 967 | 975 |
| 79 | Arkansas State | (6-6) | 960 | 880 |
| 80 | Texas State | (6-6) | 959 | 900 |
| 81 | Georgia Southern | (6-6) | 958 | 931 |
| 82 | Kentucky | (5-7) | 948 | 1086 |
| 83 | Mississippi State | (5-7) | 948 | 1063 |
| 84 | Central Michigan | (7-5) | 948 | 839 |
| 85 | Baylor | (5-7) | 944 | 1036 |
| 86 | UCF | (5-7) | 935 | 988 |
| 87 | West Virginia | (4-8) | 930 | 1076 |
| 88 | Rutgers | (5-7) | 928 | 1050 |
| 89 | Missouri State | (7-5) | 928 | 891 |
| 90 | Kansas | (5-7) | 922 | 1049 |
| 91 | Stanford | (4-8) | 916 | 1081 |
| 92 | Temple | (5-7) | 902 | 982 |
| 93 | Air Force | (4-8) | 899 | 951 |
| 94 | Southern Miss | (7-5) | 897 | 877 |
| 95 | Michigan State | (4-8) | 882 | 1032 |
| 96 | UCLA | (3-9) | 878 | 1164 |
| 97 | Florida Atlantic | (4-8) | 878 | 992 |
| 98 | Coastal Carolina | (6-6) | 874 | 905 |
| 99 | Delaware | (6-6) | 872 | 869 |
| 100 | Rice | (5-7) | 870 | 989 |
| 101 | Florida State | (5-7) | 868 | 1036 |
| 102 | Kent State | (5-7) | 844 | 855 |
| 103 | UAB | (4-8) | 843 | 999 |
| 104 | Virginia Tech | (3-9) | 842 | 1064 |
| 105 | North Carolina | (4-8) | 842 | 963 |
| 106 | Eastern Michigan | (4-8) | 838 | 851 |
| 107 | Tulsa | (4-8) | 836 | 904 |
| 108 | Colorado | (3-9) | 824 | 1117 |
| 109 | Arkansas | (2-10) | 820 | 1108 |
| 110 | South Alabama | (4-8) | 820 | 907 |
| 111 | Akron | (5-7) | 818 | 793 |
| 112 | Nevada | (3-9) | 800 | 944 |
| 113 | App State | (5-7) | 799 | 863 |
| 114 | Boston College | (2-10) | 795 | 1019 |
| 115 | Marshall | (5-7) | 795 | 932 |
| 116 | Maryland | (4-8) | 791 | 972 |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee | (3-9) | 785 | 862 |
| 118 | Liberty | (4-8) | 783 | 910 |
| 119 | Wyoming | (4-8) | 758 | 904 |
| 120 | Buffalo | (5-7) | 745 | 852 |
| 121 | Purdue | (2-10) | 742 | 1111 |
| 122 | New Mexico State | (4-8) | 725 | 868 |
| 123 | Ball State | (4-8) | 719 | 896 |
| 124 | San José State | (3-9) | 706 | 949 |
| 125 | Syracuse | (3-9) | 695 | 1070 |
| 126 | Northern Illinois | (3-9) | 693 | 860 |
| 127 | Bowling Green | (4-8) | 683 | 838 |
| 128 | Oklahoma State | (1-11) | 682 | 1055 |
| 129 | Oregon State | (2-10) | 668 | 995 |
| 130 | Colorado State | (2-10) | 641 | 991 |
| 131 | Charlotte | (1-11) | 636 | 1020 |
| 132 | Sam Houston | (2-10) | 636 | 941 |
| 133 | UL Monroe | (3-9) | 627 | 923 |
| 134 | UTEP | (2-10) | 625 | 867 |
| 135 | Georgia State | (1-11) | 604 | 994 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | (0-12) | 411 | 880 |
Agreed! Enjoy the holidays!
The race at the top tightens, with Indiana, Ohio State, and Texas A&M basically tied. Texas Tech falls behind slightly despite the win. Mizzou and GT are the only ones to drop out of the Top 25; Pitt and SMU take their place.
Currently, this would put the top 10 in the CFP, with North Texas and JMU taking the #11 and #12 spots, leaving the ACC without a representative. BYU and Bama are the first two out.
I don’t like it ranking ND that high, and higher than all the 10-win teams. But losing early to really good teams is working in their favor.
| Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | (11-0) | 1445 | 1000 |
| 2 | Ohio State | (11-0) | 1443 | 968 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | (11-0) | 1442 | 1002 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | (9-2) | 1429 | 1046 |
| 5 | Texas Tech | (10-1) | 1423 | 957 |
| 6 | Georgia | (10-1) | 1413 | 996 |
| 7 | Oregon | (10-1) | 1412 | 982 |
| 8 | Utah | (9-2) | 1372 | 1002 |
| 9 | Oklahoma | (9-2) | 1371 | 1067 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | (10-1) | 1366 | 1002 |
| 11 | BYU | (10-1) | 1354 | 1059 |
| 12 | Alabama | (9-2) | 1345 | 1062 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | (9-2) | 1306 | 985 |
| 14 | North Texas | (10-1) | 1298 | 915 |
| 15 | Michigan | (9-2) | 1266 | 1054 |
| 16 | USC | (8-3) | 1258 | 1091 |
| 17 | James Madison | (10-1) | 1256 | 856 |
| 18 | Arizona | (8-3) | 1253 | 966 |
| 19 | Tulane | (9-2) | 1249 | 1038 |
| 20 | SMU | (8-3) | 1243 | 950 |
| 21 | Virginia | (9-2) | 1232 | 937 |
| 22 | Miami | (9-2) | 1229 | 972 |
| 23 | Texas | (8-3) | 1227 | 1035 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh | (8-3) | 1225 | 937 |
| 25 | Arizona State | (8-3) | 1217 | 1017 |
| 26 | Tennessee | (8-3) | 1216 | 965 |
| 27 | Wake Forest | (8-3) | 1206 | 937 |
| 28 | Washington | (8-3) | 1201 | 943 |
| 29 | South Florida | (8-3) | 1177 | 964 |
| 30 | Navy | (8-2) | 1177 | 960 |
| 31 | San Diego State | (9-2) | 1171 | 837 |
| 32 | UConn | (9-3) | 1166 | 814 |
| 33 | Missouri | (7-4) | 1163 | 1022 |
| 34 | Old Dominion | (8-3) | 1162 | 896 |
| 35 | Iowa | (7-4) | 1161 | 1002 |
| 36 | LSU | (7-4) | 1160 | 1068 |
| 37 | UNLV | (9-2) | 1152 | 861 |
| 38 | Iowa State | (7-4) | 1144 | 1030 |
| 39 | Georgia Tech | (9-2) | 1129 | 921 |
| 40 | New Mexico | (8-3) | 1119 | 879 |
| 41 | Memphis | (8-3) | 1112 | 897 |
| 42 | Clemson | (6-5) | 1110 | 932 |
| 43 | Cincinnati | (7-4) | 1109 | 981 |
| 44 | East Carolina | (7-4) | 1109 | 962 |
| 45 | Kennesaw State | (8-3) | 1104 | 918 |
| 46 | TCU | (7-4) | 1095 | 1017 |
| 47 | Houston | (8-3) | 1092 | 949 |
| 48 | Nebraska | (7-4) | 1090 | 961 |
| 49 | Penn State | (5-6) | 1085 | 1052 |
| 50 | Western Michigan | (7-4) | 1083 | 872 |
| 51 | Illinois | (7-4) | 1077 | 1047 |
| 52 | Northwestern | (6-5) | 1071 | 1005 |
| 53 | UTSA | (6-5) | 1071 | 976 |
| 54 | Toledo | (7-4) | 1069 | 839 |
| 55 | Duke | (6-5) | 1062 | 1001 |
| 56 | Kansas State | (5-6) | 1050 | 1019 |
| 57 | South Carolina | (4-7) | 1047 | 1122 |
| 58 | Boise State | (7-4) | 1045 | 969 |
| 59 | Western Kentucky | (8-3) | 1042 | 853 |
| 60 | Wisconsin | (4-7) | 1037 | 1172 |
| 61 | NC State | (6-5) | 1033 | 1073 |
| 62 | Florida International | (6-5) | 1026 | 914 |
| 63 | Hawai’i | (7-4) | 1026 | 899 |
| 64 | Kentucky | (5-6) | 1020 | 1077 |
| 65 | Utah State | (6-5) | 1017 | 959 |
| 66 | Fresno State | (7-4) | 1015 | 862 |
| 67 | Central Michigan | (7-4) | 1010 | 822 |
| 68 | Missouri State | (7-4) | 1004 | 900 |
| 69 | Minnesota | (6-5) | 1003 | 987 |
| 70 | Louisville | (7-4) | 1000 | 987 |
| 71 | Auburn | (5-6) | 999 | 1052 |
| 72 | Jacksonville State | (7-4) | 999 | 820 |
| 73 | Ohio | (7-4) | 997 | 843 |
| 74 | Baylor | (5-6) | 989 | 1033 |
| 75 | Washington State | (5-6) | 984 | 1026 |
| 76 | Louisiana | (5-6) | 979 | 915 |
| 77 | Miami (OH) | (6-5) | 977 | 899 |
| 78 | Army | (5-5) | 971 | 919 |
| 79 | West Virginia | (4-7) | 966 | 1043 |
| 80 | Rutgers | (5-6) | 963 | 1027 |
| 81 | Southern Miss | (7-4) | 963 | 849 |
| 82 | California | (6-5) | 962 | 904 |
| 83 | Mississippi State | (5-6) | 961 | 1051 |
| 84 | Troy | (7-4) | 957 | 861 |
| 85 | UCF | (5-6) | 943 | 957 |
| 86 | Florida | (3-8) | 939 | 1146 |
| 87 | Florida Atlantic | (4-7) | 935 | 978 |
| 88 | Florida State | (5-6) | 931 | 1032 |
| 89 | Kansas | (5-6) | 928 | 1014 |
| 90 | Stanford | (4-7) | 927 | 1050 |
| 91 | Arkansas State | (5-6) | 922 | 883 |
| 92 | Coastal Carolina | (6-5) | 919 | 879 |
| 93 | Rice | (5-6) | 918 | 967 |
| 94 | Temple | (5-6) | 917 | 955 |
| 95 | Tulsa | (4-7) | 917 | 913 |
| 96 | Georgia Southern | (5-6) | 911 | 940 |
| 97 | Louisiana Tech | (6-5) | 910 | 856 |
| 98 | Texas State | (5-6) | 895 | 919 |
| 99 | UCLA | (3-8) | 888 | 1150 |
| 100 | North Carolina | (4-7) | 887 | 940 |
| 101 | South Alabama | (4-7) | 886 | 902 |
| 102 | Eastern Michigan | (4-7) | 863 | 833 |
| 103 | Maryland | (4-7) | 857 | 1004 |
| 104 | Virginia Tech | (3-8) | 851 | 1037 |
| 105 | Air Force | (3-8) | 849 | 963 |
| 106 | Colorado | (3-8) | 846 | 1111 |
| 107 | Marshall | (5-6) | 844 | 926 |
| 108 | App State | (5-6) | 839 | 858 |
| 109 | Arkansas | (2-9) | 838 | 1112 |
| 110 | Nevada | (3-8) | 821 | 921 |
| 111 | Akron | (5-7) | 817 | 791 |
| 112 | Michigan State | (3-8) | 814 | 1036 |
| 113 | Delaware | (5-6) | 812 | 889 |
| 114 | New Mexico State | (4-7) | 801 | 896 |
| 115 | Liberty | (4-7) | 797 | 880 |
| 116 | Kent State | (4-7) | 795 | 875 |
| 117 | Wyoming | (4-7) | 783 | 898 |
| 118 | Purdue | (2-9) | 771 | 1078 |
| 119 | Syracuse | (3-8) | 767 | 1100 |
| 120 | Buffalo | (5-6) | 766 | 825 |
| 121 | UAB | (3-8) | 762 | 1017 |
| 122 | Ball State | (4-7) | 747 | 882 |
| 123 | Northern Illinois | (3-8) | 741 | 872 |
| 124 | San José State | (3-8) | 739 | 941 |
| 125 | Boston College | (1-10) | 719 | 1037 |
| 126 | Middle Tennessee | (2-9) | 710 | 887 |
| 127 | Colorado State | (2-9) | 691 | 997 |
| 128 | Oregon State | (2-9) | 689 | 993 |
| 129 | Oklahoma State | (1-10) | 687 | 1047 |
| 130 | UTEP | (2-9) | 679 | 870 |
| 131 | Sam Houston | (2-9) | 672 | 913 |
| 132 | Charlotte | (1-10) | 641 | 1000 |
| 133 | UL Monroe | (3-8) | 636 | 927 |
| 134 | Bowling Green | (3-8) | 626 | 875 |
| 135 | Georgia State | (1-10) | 605 | 981 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | (0-11) | 466 | 895 |
No worries, thanks for putting the work in.
Also, I put them ahead of bama… By one spot.
I’m still surprised how well my algo has been working, especially since it’s backward looking.
I do wonder how the standings would pan out if there were 3/2/1 points for 1st/2nd/3rd place…or for each correct guess…or 1/2/3/4 point for 4/5/6/7 correct guesses… Not trying to add more to your plate, just wondering! 😂
Texas Tech jumps into 2nd, all but tied with Texas A&M and Ohio State. Bama and Texas drop as expected. But the big movement can be found in the back half and beyond. Miami, Arizona, and Mizzou shoot up into the rankings, with honorable mentions to ECU and Navy who don’t quite make it in. USF, Iowa, Pitt, and Cincy plummet to 35+.
And let’s not forget about North Texas, who continues to creep up, now sitting at 14! This really highlights how I built the poll for the most deserving (vs. best) teams. Do I think they are the 14th best team: probably not. But, outside of their one loss, they’ve won big, compensating for their relatively weak schedule. I might look into tightening the margin of victory guardrails a bit more next year, though…
| Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | (11-0) | 1443 | 982 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | (10-1) | 1423 | 964 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | (10-0) | 1421 | 1035 |
| 4 | Ohio State | (10-0) | 1420 | 965 |
| 5 | Georgia | (9-1) | 1399 | 1036 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | (8-2) | 1396 | 1060 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | (10-1) | 1363 | 994 |
| 8 | Utah | (8-2) | 1360 | 1014 |
| 9 | Oregon | (9-1) | 1354 | 941 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | (8-2) | 1336 | 1042 |
| 11 | Alabama | (8-2) | 1319 | 1107 |
| 12 | BYU | (9-1) | 1319 | 1037 |
| 13 | USC | (8-2) | 1314 | 1076 |
| 14 | North Texas | (9-1) | 1270 | 911 |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | (8-2) | 1261 | 960 |
| 16 | Michigan | (8-2) | 1250 | 1062 |
| 17 | James Madison | (9-1) | 1238 | 844 |
| 18 | Virginia | (9-2) | 1233 | 947 |
| 19 | Texas | (7-3) | 1216 | 1064 |
| 20 | Tulane | (8-2) | 1215 | 1034 |
| 21 | Miami | (8-2) | 1215 | 978 |
| 22 | Arizona | (7-3) | 1211 | 984 |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | (9-1) | 1201 | 886 |
| 24 | Arizona State | (7-3) | 1195 | 1028 |
| 25 | Missouri | (7-3) | 1194 | 966 |
| 26 | East Carolina | (7-3) | 1193 | 950 |
| 27 | SMU | (7-3) | 1189 | 936 |
| 28 | Navy | (8-2) | 1179 | 959 |
| 29 | Tennessee | (7-3) | 1176 | 966 |
| 30 | Wake Forest | (7-3) | 1174 | 952 |
| 31 | Houston | (8-2) | 1172 | 933 |
| 32 | Nebraska | (7-3) | 1168 | 963 |
| 33 | San Diego State | (8-2) | 1162 | 872 |
| 34 | Illinois | (7-3) | 1158 | 1045 |
| 35 | South Florida | (7-3) | 1158 | 977 |
| 36 | Iowa | (6-4) | 1151 | 1008 |
| 37 | Pittsburgh | (7-3) | 1151 | 915 |
| 38 | Washington | (7-3) | 1148 | 953 |
| 39 | Cincinnati | (7-3) | 1144 | 950 |
| 40 | UConn | (8-3) | 1140 | 809 |
| 41 | Memphis | (8-3) | 1113 | 900 |
| 42 | LSU | (6-4) | 1110 | 1051 |
| 43 | Old Dominion | (7-3) | 1102 | 908 |
| 44 | Clemson | (5-5) | 1098 | 997 |
| 45 | Fresno State | (7-3) | 1098 | 864 |
| 46 | Hawai’i | (7-3) | 1094 | 876 |
| 47 | Western Kentucky | (8-2) | 1092 | 804 |
| 48 | Iowa State | (6-4) | 1089 | 1036 |
| 49 | UNLV | (8-2) | 1086 | 857 |
| 50 | Western Michigan | (7-4) | 1084 | 878 |
| 51 | New Mexico | (7-3) | 1082 | 859 |
| 52 | Jacksonville State | (7-3) | 1074 | 820 |
| 53 | Missouri State | (7-3) | 1066 | 884 |
| 54 | Minnesota | (6-4) | 1064 | 988 |
| 55 | Kansas State | (5-5) | 1063 | 984 |
| 56 | Kentucky | (5-5) | 1060 | 1037 |
| 57 | Army | (5-4) | 1059 | 935 |
| 58 | Louisville | (7-3) | 1055 | 959 |
| 59 | Southern Miss | (7-3) | 1047 | 845 |
| 60 | Kennesaw State | (7-3) | 1046 | 901 |
| 61 | California | (6-4) | 1043 | 914 |
| 62 | Toledo | (6-4) | 1037 | 860 |
| 63 | Baylor | (5-5) | 1031 | 996 |
| 64 | Duke | (5-5) | 1016 | 1026 |
| 65 | Boise State | (6-4) | 1016 | 978 |
| 66 | TCU | (6-4) | 1015 | 1005 |
| 67 | Central Michigan | (7-4) | 1010 | 815 |
| 68 | Northwestern | (5-5) | 1008 | 1008 |
| 69 | Penn State | (4-6) | 1006 | 1024 |
| 70 | Washington State | (5-5) | 1002 | 988 |
| 71 | Ohio | (7-4) | 997 | 846 |
| 72 | Florida State | (5-5) | 994 | 1009 |
| 73 | Arkansas State | (5-5) | 994 | 868 |
| 74 | UTSA | (5-5) | 991 | 960 |
| 75 | Coastal Carolina | (6-4) | 986 | 866 |
| 76 | Rutgers | (5-5) | 984 | 989 |
| 77 | Kansas | (5-5) | 983 | 1013 |
| 78 | Miami (OH) | (6-5) | 977 | 884 |
| 79 | South Carolina | (3-7) | 976 | 1133 |
| 80 | Florida | (3-7) | 975 | 1130 |
| 81 | NC State | (5-5) | 970 | 1084 |
| 82 | Georgia Southern | (5-5) | 970 | 953 |
| 83 | Auburn | (4-6) | 969 | 1112 |
| 84 | West Virginia | (4-7) | 965 | 1035 |
| 85 | Florida Atlantic | (4-6) | 960 | 946 |
| 86 | Mississippi State | (5-6) | 959 | 1055 |
| 87 | Wisconsin | (3-7) | 955 | 1157 |
| 88 | Florida International | (5-5) | 954 | 904 |
| 89 | Temple | (5-5) | 951 | 931 |
| 90 | Rice | (5-5) | 949 | 930 |
| 91 | Troy | (6-4) | 947 | 871 |
| 92 | UCLA | (3-7) | 939 | 1127 |
| 93 | Utah State | (5-5) | 936 | 946 |
| 94 | North Carolina | (4-6) | 935 | 918 |
| 95 | UCF | (4-6) | 925 | 1019 |
| 96 | Marshall | (5-5) | 919 | 921 |
| 97 | Louisiana | (4-6) | 903 | 922 |
| 98 | Air Force | (3-7) | 887 | 952 |
| 99 | Maryland | (4-6) | 872 | 990 |
| 100 | Colorado | (3-7) | 868 | 1104 |
| 101 | Texas State | (4-6) | 865 | 950 |
| 102 | Virginia Tech | (3-7) | 864 | 1018 |
| 103 | Eastern Michigan | (4-7) | 862 | 829 |
| 104 | Wyoming | (4-6) | 860 | 915 |
| 105 | Liberty | (4-6) | 853 | 879 |
| 106 | Louisiana Tech | (5-5) | 852 | 877 |
| 107 | Delaware | (5-5) | 846 | 862 |
| 108 | Arkansas | (2-8) | 845 | 1090 |
| 109 | Stanford | (3-7) | 844 | 1060 |
| 110 | Tulsa | (3-7) | 833 | 916 |
| 111 | Michigan State | (3-7) | 824 | 1039 |
| 112 | Akron | (5-7) | 818 | 806 |
| 113 | Syracuse | (3-7) | 800 | 1052 |
| 114 | South Alabama | (3-7) | 800 | 897 |
| 115 | Kent State | (4-7) | 795 | 878 |
| 116 | UAB | (3-7) | 785 | 1006 |
| 117 | Ball State | (4-6) | 778 | 858 |
| 118 | Purdue | (2-9) | 770 | 1084 |
| 119 | Buffalo | (5-6) | 765 | 828 |
| 120 | App State | (4-6) | 762 | 872 |
| 121 | New Mexico State | (3-7) | 752 | 915 |
| 122 | Sam Houston | (2-8) | 748 | 943 |
| 123 | San José State | (3-7) | 748 | 908 |
| 124 | Nevada | (2-8) | 746 | 918 |
| 125 | Northern Illinois | (3-8) | 741 | 872 |
| 126 | UTEP | (2-8) | 731 | 886 |
| 127 | Colorado State | (2-8) | 721 | 992 |
| 128 | Boston College | (1-10) | 719 | 1031 |
| 129 | Oklahoma State | (1-9) | 705 | 1061 |
| 130 | Oregon State | (2-9) | 690 | 1001 |
| 131 | UL Monroe | (3-7) | 668 | 933 |
| 132 | Charlotte | (1-9) | 653 | 967 |
| 133 | Middle Tennessee | (1-9) | 635 | 910 |
| 134 | Bowling Green | (3-8) | 626 | 885 |
| 135 | Georgia State | (1-9) | 615 | 981 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | (0-11) | 466 | 901 |
I’m not really convinced Oregon is a Top 5 team. And I’m not sure about Houston being ranked. I mean they lost to a bad (but improving!) WVU. Otherwise, it looks pretty reasonable to me!
Plenty of movement in my poll, as expected. Surprisingly, Texas Tech didn’t get as much of a bump from the win versus BYU as I would’ve expected.
| Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | (10-0) | 1436 | 988 |
| 2 | Texas A&M | (9-0) | 1416 | 1037 |
| 3 | Alabama | (8-1) | 1398 | 1067 |
| 4 | Ohio State | (9-0) | 1398 | 977 |
| 5 | Texas Tech | (9-1) | 1397 | 962 |
| 6 | Ole Miss | (9-1) | 1355 | 974 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | (7-2) | 1340 | 1048 |
| 8 | Georgia | (8-1) | 1339 | 1023 |
| 9 | Utah | (7-2) | 1326 | 1021 |
| 10 | Oregon | (8-1) | 1310 | 935 |
| 11 | USC | (7-2) | 1279 | 1059 |
| 12 | Texas | (7-2) | 1277 | 1021 |
| 13 | BYU | (8-1) | 1276 | 1020 |
| 14 | Vanderbilt | (8-2) | 1261 | 980 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | (7-2) | 1257 | 1008 |
| 16 | North Texas | (8-1) | 1253 | 901 |
| 17 | South Florida | (7-2) | 1230 | 962 |
| 18 | Michigan | (7-2) | 1226 | 1050 |
| 19 | Cincinnati | (7-2) | 1217 | 929 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | (7-2) | 1207 | 861 |
| 21 | James Madison | (8-1) | 1203 | 843 |
| 22 | Georgia Tech | (8-1) | 1199 | 912 |
| 23 | Tulane | (7-2) | 1192 | 1032 |
| 24 | SMU | (7-3) | 1190 | 928 |
| 25 | Iowa | (6-3) | 1187 | 974 |
| 26 | Virginia | (8-2) | 1181 | 949 |
| 27 | Arizona State | (6-3) | 1175 | 1032 |
| 28 | Memphis | (8-2) | 1173 | 883 |
| 29 | Houston | (8-2) | 1172 | 934 |
| 30 | Nebraska | (7-3) | 1168 | 986 |
| 31 | Miami | (7-2) | 1159 | 983 |
| 32 | Tennessee | (6-3) | 1151 | 990 |
| 33 | Missouri | (6-3) | 1147 | 983 |
| 34 | Southern Miss | (7-2) | 1144 | 851 |
| 35 | Wake Forest | (6-3) | 1138 | 970 |
| 36 | Arizona | (6-3) | 1138 | 962 |
| 37 | Illinois | (6-3) | 1136 | 1054 |
| 38 | East Carolina | (6-3) | 1131 | 935 |
| 39 | Louisville | (7-2) | 1129 | 946 |
| 40 | Kennesaw State | (7-2) | 1122 | 884 |
| 41 | Washington | (6-3) | 1120 | 963 |
| 42 | UConn | (7-3) | 1120 | 831 |
| 43 | San Diego State | (7-2) | 1118 | 838 |
| 44 | Minnesota | (6-3) | 1108 | 972 |
| 45 | Navy | (7-2) | 1105 | 929 |
| 46 | Hawai’i | (7-3) | 1097 | 866 |
| 47 | LSU | (5-4) | 1094 | 1082 |
| 48 | Western Kentucky | (7-2) | 1091 | 810 |
| 49 | Iowa State | (6-4) | 1090 | 1037 |
| 50 | New Mexico | (6-3) | 1076 | 884 |
| 51 | Duke | (5-4) | 1069 | 994 |
| 52 | Coastal Carolina | (6-3) | 1067 | 840 |
| 53 | Baylor | (5-4) | 1066 | 970 |
| 54 | Boise State | (6-3) | 1063 | 948 |
| 55 | TCU | (6-3) | 1060 | 978 |
| 56 | Army | (5-4) | 1057 | 929 |
| 57 | Missouri State | (6-3) | 1055 | 900 |
| 58 | Fresno State | (6-3) | 1055 | 856 |
| 59 | Kansas State | (4-5) | 1051 | 1016 |
| 60 | UNLV | (7-2) | 1051 | 856 |
| 61 | Ohio | (6-3) | 1048 | 863 |
| 62 | Kentucky | (4-5) | 1047 | 1090 |
| 63 | California | (6-4) | 1045 | 939 |
| 64 | Old Dominion | (6-3) | 1036 | 932 |
| 65 | Northwestern | (5-4) | 1032 | 977 |
| 66 | NC State | (5-4) | 1027 | 1066 |
| 67 | Clemson | (4-5) | 1026 | 999 |
| 68 | Troy | (6-3) | 1013 | 847 |
| 69 | Mississippi State | (5-5) | 1005 | 1044 |
| 70 | Western Michigan | (5-4) | 1005 | 880 |
| 71 | Jacksonville State | (6-3) | 1004 | 811 |
| 72 | Arkansas State | (5-5) | 996 | 876 |
| 73 | Miami (OH) | (5-4) | 994 | 867 |
| 74 | West Virginia | (4-6) | 987 | 1029 |
| 75 | Rutgers | (5-5) | 984 | 1000 |
| 76 | Florida Atlantic | (4-5) | 984 | 913 |
| 77 | Florida | (3-6) | 983 | 1107 |
| 78 | Kansas | (5-5) | 983 | 1006 |
| 79 | South Carolina | (3-6) | 980 | 1099 |
| 80 | North Carolina | (4-5) | 974 | 887 |
| 81 | Utah State | (5-4) | 973 | 934 |
| 82 | Auburn | (4-6) | 969 | 1098 |
| 83 | UTSA | (4-5) | 965 | 988 |
| 84 | Toledo | (5-4) | 965 | 829 |
| 85 | Wisconsin | (3-6) | 963 | 1130 |
| 86 | UCLA | (3-6) | 962 | 1091 |
| 87 | UCF | (4-5) | 951 | 984 |
| 88 | Temple | (5-5) | 950 | 910 |
| 89 | Rice | (5-5) | 949 | 930 |
| 90 | Penn State | (3-6) | 945 | 1032 |
| 91 | Washington State | (4-5) | 937 | 986 |
| 92 | Delaware | (5-4) | 936 | 874 |
| 93 | Virginia Tech | (3-6) | 931 | 1024 |
| 94 | Florida State | (4-5) | 929 | 1013 |
| 95 | Louisiana Tech | (5-4) | 921 | 886 |
| 96 | Liberty | (4-5) | 917 | 869 |
| 97 | Air Force | (3-6) | 911 | 942 |
| 98 | Wyoming | (4-5) | 907 | 899 |
| 99 | Central Michigan | (5-4) | 906 | 834 |
| 100 | Louisiana | (4-6) | 903 | 905 |
| 101 | Marshall | (4-5) | 902 | 935 |
| 102 | Florida International | (4-5) | 897 | 922 |
| 103 | Maryland | (4-5) | 895 | 969 |
| 104 | Georgia Southern | (4-5) | 892 | 946 |
| 105 | Michigan State | (3-6) | 886 | 1034 |
| 106 | Buffalo | (5-4) | 882 | 805 |
| 107 | Colorado | (3-7) | 868 | 1109 |
| 108 | Arkansas | (2-7) | 859 | 1089 |
| 109 | Akron | (4-6) | 858 | 840 |
| 110 | Ball State | (4-5) | 849 | 851 |
| 111 | Stanford | (3-7) | 846 | 1057 |
| 112 | San José State | (3-6) | 829 | 933 |
| 113 | Syracuse | (3-7) | 801 | 1050 |
| 114 | UAB | (3-6) | 800 | 977 |
| 115 | App State | (4-5) | 800 | 852 |
| 116 | Purdue | (2-8) | 798 | 1075 |
| 117 | Eastern Michigan | (3-7) | 789 | 831 |
| 118 | New Mexico State | (3-6) | 780 | 891 |
| 119 | Texas State | (3-6) | 771 | 927 |
| 120 | Tulsa | (2-7) | 770 | 937 |
| 121 | Kent State | (3-6) | 762 | 875 |
| 122 | Oregon State | (2-8) | 753 | 992 |
| 123 | UTEP | (2-7) | 746 | 890 |
| 124 | UL Monroe | (3-6) | 735 | 981 |
| 125 | South Alabama | (2-7) | 735 | 937 |
| 126 | Colorado State | (2-7) | 729 | 961 |
| 127 | Boston College | (1-9) | 724 | 1019 |
| 128 | Oklahoma State | (1-8) | 717 | 1050 |
| 129 | Northern Illinois | (2-7) | 701 | 896 |
| 130 | Charlotte | (1-8) | 677 | 972 |
| 131 | Nevada | (1-8) | 668 | 930 |
| 132 | Sam Houston | (1-8) | 665 | 969 |
| 133 | Bowling Green | (3-7) | 661 | 902 |
| 134 | Middle Tennessee | (1-8) | 645 | 883 |
| 135 | Georgia State | (1-8) | 636 | 987 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | (0-9) | 534 | 900 |
Alright, who did it? Who ranked Indiana so low, that Ohio State took #1 despite Indiana getting 3/4 first place votes?
It’s okay, you can’t always expect keep up with those big football schools. 😂
Not necessarily disagreeing, but I am curious of your reasons for having both Indiana and Texas A&M over Ohio State. Does it have to do with how many games they’ve played or do they just look better to you?
The results are making more sense now, but still some notable outliers.
Mississippi State due to the adjusted win totals gained off of the Minnesota (3.02) and Mizzou (2.80) and the Alabama loss only gaining them half a loss.
Ohio State is clawing their way up the list with their first lucrative win, earning 2.7 adjusted wins from Iowa. The loss to Texas isn’t dragging them down much either.